The energy transition - a necessity and global chalenge
The need for an energy transition is widely understood and shared; however, the implication and challenges that must be resolved call for concerted effort. Hydrogen has the potential to be powerful enabler of this transition, as it offers a clean, sustainable and flexible option for overcoming multiple obstacles that stand in the way of resilient and low carbon economy.
The world needs a cleaner, more sustainable energy system.
Unless the energy system changes in almost every respect from power generation to and-uses across sectors, the global climate will be affected in the coming 50 to 100 years. The greenhouse gases emitted in a business-as-usual scenario would lead to an increase of average global temperature of about 4°C. This, in turn, would rise sea levels, shift climate zones and make extreme weather and droughts more frequent, as well as causing other changes, all impacting biological, social and economic systems.
The concept of mitigating climate change by transitioning to an energy system with less greenhouse gas emissions and more sustainable, even circular, consumption and production, enjoys broad global support. The international community has embraced the idea in multiple international agreements, including the Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs), Habitat III, and COP21 in Paris. With COP21, 195 countries adopted the first universal, legally binding global climate deal. It aims to keep "increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1,5°C".
These goals are ambitious, and current efforts are not enough. The country plans laid out in COP21 to reduce CO2 emissions (the INDCs) are insufficient. They will increase the average global temperature well above the 2°C mark by 2100 (IEA analysis found that implementation of the INDC is consistent with a global temperature rise of 2,7°C by 2100 and 3°C thereafter). Limiting global warming to 2°C will allow a cumulated emission of energy-related carbon emissions of approximately 900 Gt of CO2 by 2100. At current annual related CO2 emissions of 34 Gt, that is ceiling will be reached before 2050. At the same time, the world is facing a need of near-term goals for reducing air pollution, since only 1% of the global population lives in areas with emission deemed healthy by the World Health Organization.
The need for action is pressing. To achieve the ambitions of COP21, Habitat III and SDGs across all sectors, the world needs to embark on one of the most profound transformations in its history: a transition of energy supply and consumption from a system fueled primarily by non-renewable, carbon-based energy sources to one fueled clean, low carbon energy sources.
Efforts to decarbonize the energy system needs to pull on four main levers: improving energy efficiency, developing renewable energy sources, switching to low/zero carbon energy carriers, and implementing carbon capture and storage (CCS) as well as utilization (CCU).
This will radically change energy supply and demand. Today fossil fuels account for 82% of primary energy consumption; renewable energy sources contribute only 14%, and nuclear sources 4%. Towards 2050, growth in population and GDP will increase energy demands by 16%, despite projected energy efficiency achievements. By 2050, renewables are expected to increase their share of the energy mix by 3 to 5 times the current amount. At the same time, fossil fuels continue to make up a large share (partially using carbon capture and storage to offset or prevent emissions). New energy carriers will be needed to transfer the growing share of decarbonized primary energy towards energy demand side, while maintaining the quality of energy services provided to end uses (residential, industries, and transport). Two energy carriers promise to have the greatest possible impact when it comes to decarbonizing and implementing changes at scale: electricity and hydrogen.
The energy transition needs to overcome five major challenges.
Transitioning towards a low-carbon economy will need nothing less than a paradigm shift (see appendix I) requiring large scale investments. The challenges ahead, come from five areas - and hydrogen has a role to play in successfully overcoming all of them Figure 1).
1. Using more variable renewable energy in the power sector will unbalance supply and demand.
Generating electricity from intermittent renewable energy source and increasing electricity demand will strain the power system to its limits. Grid capacity, intermittency, as well as application of low carbon seasonal (weeks to months) storage and back up generation capacity will be challenges to address.
Hydrogen helps optimize the power system for renewables, facilitating further increases in renewable shares. Electrolysis produces hydrogen by using (excess) power supply and enables to valorize it either in the other sectors (transport, industry, residential heat) or to store it for future re-use. Hydrogen has the potential to improve economic efficiency of renewable investments, enhance security of power supply and serve as a carbon-free seasonal storage, supplying energy when renewable energy production is low and energy demand is high, e.g. in European winter.
2. To ensure security of supply, global and local energy infrastructure will require major transformation.
Today about 30% of the global primary energy supply is traded across borders, encompassing a mix of energy carriers (oil,gas,coal and electricity). The needs for energy trading will persist, since the potential of renewable energy production varies heavily across the worlds regions-compounded by limited "storability" of electricity as such. A functioning cross-border energy infrastructure will be essential for ensuring a secured energy supply. Changes will also occur at the level of regions or cities within a country: a new mix of centralized and decentralized energy supply will emerge, amplifying the need for adjusted energy infrastructure.
Hydrogen can provide a cost-effective, clean energy infrastructure, contributing to supply security both at local and country levels. Produced hydrogen on the place of demand, shipped, piped or trucked, hydrogen is a means to (re)distributing energy effectively among cities and regions.
3. Buffering of the energy system through fossil fuels will no longer be sufficient to ensure smooth functioning of the system.
The buffer capacity ensures the smooth functioning of the energy system by maintaining a reserve of approximately 15% of worlds total annual energy demand. This buffer absorbs chain shocks, provides strategic reserves at country level, and anticipates supply and demand imbalances. Today fossil energy carriers provide most of the energy capacity. As the electrification increases, the reserves will no longer be adequate to ensure a stable energy supply for all end-users.
Due to its storability and flexibility in terms of transport, hydrogen is viable-and clean-future option for mastering the buffer challenge.
4.Some energy end users are hard to electrify via the grid or with batteries, especially in transport but also in other sectors.
In many sectors, direct electrification is and will remain technologically challenging or uneconomical even at very high CO2 prices. This applies e.g, to heavy-duty transport, non-electrified trains, overseas transport and aviation, but also to some energy-intensive industries. In other sectors, such as a light-duty vehicles, direct electrification, although technologically possible, does not allows meet performance requirements in range and charging convenience.
In many, if not all of this sectors, where technological and/or economic obstacles prevent direct electrification, hydrogen offers viable solution.
5. Renewable energy sources can not replace all fossil feedstocks in the (petro-) chemical industry.
Fossil fuels used for the production of e.g., plastics will cause (carbon) emissions at the end of their life cycle when burned in incinerators. This delayed emissions need to be decarbonized too. Combining hydrogen with captured carbon creates hydrocarbons that can complement oil and natural gas as the chemical feedstock. Thus, hydrogen may also help to put carbon capture and utilization into practice and to decarbonize other carbon-intense sectors like the cement industry.
Taken together, the unique properties of hydrogen make it a promising solution to overcome the challenges facing the energy system. Hydrogen can be produced without any carbon footprint if renewable electricity is used for electrolysis, if bio-methane is used in steam methane reforming (SMR), or is SMR is equipped with CCS/CCU. The properties of hydrogen enable it to generate power and/or heat (through fuel cells, combined heat/power units (CHPs),burners or modified gas turbines). Its chemical properties also allow for its use as feedstock in chemical processes, including production of ammonia and methanol. Hydrogen combustion does not emit SOx or other particulates and only limited NOx. In fuel cells, e.g., for vehicles, hydrogen usage does not cause any emissions and makes less noise than conventional engines. Stored in tanks, hydrogen is lighter and contains more energy then a battery of similar size, offering clean benefits for energy storage and distribution. (For more information on hydrogen, see appendix II –hydrogen essentials).
List of abbreviations
CCS Carbon capture and storage
CCU Carbon capture and utilization
CHP Combined heat/power units
COP21 Conference of the parties in Paris in December 2015
GDP Gross domestic product
INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
SDG Sustainability Development Goals
SMR Steam methane reforming
The energy transition - a necessity and global chalenge
The need for an energy transition is widely understood and shared; however, the implication and challenges that must be resolved call for concerted effort. Hydrogen has the potential to be powerful enabler of this transition, as it offers a clean, sustainable and flexible option for overcoming multiple obstacles that stand in the way of resilient and low carbon economy.
The world needs a cleaner, more sustainable energy system.
Unless the energy system changes in almost every respect from power generation to and-uses across sectors, the global climate will be affected in the coming 50 to 100 years. The greenhouse gases emitted in a business-as-usual scenario would lead to an increase of average global temperature of about 4°C. This, in turn, would rise sea levels, shift climate zones and make extreme weather and droughts more frequent, as well as causing other changes, all impacting biological, social and economic systems.
The concept of mitigating climate change by transitioning to an energy system with less greenhouse gas emissions and more sustainable, even circular, consumption and production, enjoys broad global support. The international community has embraced the idea in multiple international agreements, including the Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs), Habitat III, and COP21 in Paris. With COP21, 195 countries adopted the first universal, legally binding global climate deal. It aims to keep "increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1,5°C".
These goals are ambitious, and current efforts are not enough. The country plans laid out in COP21 to reduce CO2 emissions (the INDCs) are insufficient. They will increase the average global temperature well above the 2°C mark by 2100 (IEA analysis found that implementation of the INDC is consistent with a global temperature rise of 2,7°C by 2100 and 3°C thereafter). Limiting global warming to 2°C will allow a cumulated emission of energy-related carbon emissions of approximately 900 Gt of CO2 by 2100. At current annual related CO2 emissions of 34 Gt, that is ceiling will be reached before 2050. At the same time, the world is facing a need of near-term goals for reducing air pollution, since only 1% of the global population lives in areas with emission deemed healthy by the World Health Organization.
The need for action is pressing. To achieve the ambitions of COP21, Habitat III and SDGs across all sectors, the world needs to embark on one of the most profound transformations in its history: a transition of energy supply and consumption from a system fueled primarily by non-renewable, carbon-based energy sources to one fueled clean, low carbon energy sources.
Efforts to decarbonize the energy system needs to pull on four main levers: improving energy efficiency, developing renewable energy sources, switching to low/zero carbon energy carriers, and implementing carbon capture and storage (CCS) as well as utilization (CCU).
This will radically change energy supply and demand. Today fossil fuels account for 82% of primary energy consumption; renewable energy sources contribute only 14%, and nuclear sources 4%. Towards 2050, growth in population and GDP will increase energy demands by 16%, despite projected energy efficiency achievements. By 2050, renewables are expected to increase their share of the energy mix by 3 to 5 times the current amount. At the same time, fossil fuels continue to make up a large share (partially using carbon capture and storage to offset or prevent emissions). New energy carriers will be needed to transfer the growing share of decarbonized primary energy towards energy demand side, while maintaining the quality of energy services provided to end uses (residential, industries, and transport). Two energy carriers promise to have the greatest possible impact when it comes to decarbonizing and implementing changes at scale: electricity and hydrogen.
The energy transition needs to overcome five major challenges.
Transitioning towards a low-carbon economy will need nothing less than a paradigm shift (see appendix I) requiring large scale investments. The challenges ahead, come from five areas - and hydrogen has a role to play in successfully overcoming all of them Figure 1).
1. Using more variable renewable energy in the power sector will unbalance supply and demand.
Generating electricity from intermittent renewable energy source and increasing electricity demand will strain the power system to its limits. Grid capacity, intermittency, as well as application of low carbon seasonal (weeks to months) storage and back up generation capacity will be challenges to address.
Hydrogen helps optimize the power system for renewables, facilitating further increases in renewable shares. Electrolysis produces hydrogen by using (excess) power supply and enables to valorize it either in the other sectors (transport, industry, residential heat) or to store it for future re-use. Hydrogen has the potential to improve economic efficiency of renewable investments, enhance security of power supply and serve as a carbon-free seasonal storage, supplying energy when renewable energy production is low and energy demand is high, e.g. in European winter.
2. To ensure security of supply, global and local energy infrastructure will require major transformation.
Today about 30% of the global primary energy supply is traded across borders, encompassing a mix of energy carriers (oil,gas,coal and electricity). The needs for energy trading will persist, since the potential of renewable energy production varies heavily across the worlds regions-compounded by limited "storability" of electricity as such. A functioning cross-border energy infrastructure will be essential for ensuring a secured energy supply. Changes will also occur at the level of regions or cities within a country: a new mix of centralized and decentralized energy supply will emerge, amplifying the need for adjusted energy infrastructure.
Hydrogen can provide a cost-effective, clean energy infrastructure, contributing to supply security both at local and country levels. Produced hydrogen on the place of demand, shipped, piped or trucked, hydrogen is a means to (re)distributing energy effectively among cities and regions.
3. Buffering of the energy system through fossil fuels will no longer be sufficient to ensure smooth functioning of the system.
The buffer capacity ensures the smooth functioning of the energy system by maintaining a reserve of approximately 15% of worlds total annual energy demand. This buffer absorbs chain shocks, provides strategic reserves at country level, and anticipates supply and demand imbalances. Today fossil energy carriers provide most of the energy capacity. As the electrification increases, the reserves will no longer be adequate to ensure a stable energy supply for all end-users.
Due to its storability and flexibility in terms of transport, hydrogen is viable-and clean-future option for mastering the buffer challenge.
4.Some energy end users are hard to electrify via the grid or with batteries, especially in transport but also in other sectors.
In many sectors, direct electrification is and will remain technologically challenging or uneconomical even at very high CO2 prices. This applies e.g, to heavy-duty transport, non-electrified trains, overseas transport and aviation, but also to some energy-intensive industries. In other sectors, such as a light-duty vehicles, direct electrification, although technologically possible, does not allows meet performance requirements in range and charging convenience.
In many, if not all of this sectors, where technological and/or economic obstacles prevent direct electrification, hydrogen offers viable solution.
5. Renewable energy sources can not replace all fossil feedstocks in the (petro-) chemical industry.
Fossil fuels used for the production of e.g., plastics will cause (carbon) emissions at the end of their life cycle when burned in incinerators. This delayed emissions need to be decarbonized too. Combining hydrogen with captured carbon creates hydrocarbons that can complement oil and natural gas as the chemical feedstock. Thus, hydrogen may also help to put carbon capture and utilization into practice and to decarbonize other carbon-intense sectors like the cement industry.
Taken together, the unique properties of hydrogen make it a promising solution to overcome the challenges facing the energy system. Hydrogen can be produced without any carbon footprint if renewable electricity is used for electrolysis, if bio-methane is used in steam methane reforming (SMR), or is SMR is equipped with CCS/CCU. The properties of hydrogen enable it to generate power and/or heat (through fuel cells, combined heat/power units (CHPs),burners or modified gas turbines). Its chemical properties also allow for its use as feedstock in chemical processes, including production of ammonia and methanol. Hydrogen combustion does not emit SOx or other particulates and only limited NOx. In fuel cells, e.g., for vehicles, hydrogen usage does not cause any emissions and makes less noise than conventional engines. Stored in tanks, hydrogen is lighter and contains more energy then a battery of similar size, offering clean benefits for energy storage and distribution. (For more information on hydrogen, see appendix II –hydrogen essentials).
List of abbreviations
CCS Carbon capture and storage
CCU Carbon capture and utilization
CHP Combined heat/power units
COP21 Conference of the parties in Paris in December 2015
GDP Gross domestic product
INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
SDG Sustainability Development Goals
SMR Steam methane reforming
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